SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
FORM 6-K
Report of Foreign Private Issuer
Pursuant to Rule 13a-16 or 15d-16 of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
For the month of June, 2004
Commission File Number 001-14489
TELE CENTRO OESTE CELULAR PARTICIPAÇÕES S.A.
Tele Centro Oeste Celular Participações Holding Company
(Translation of Registrants name into English)
SCS Quadra 2, Bloco C, Edifício Anexo-Telebrasília Celular
-7° Andar, Brasília, D.F.
Federative Republic of Brazil
(Address of principal executive office)
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports
under cover Form 20-F or Form 40-F.
Form 20-F þ Form 40-F o
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant by furnishing the
information contained in this Form is also thereby furnishing the information
to the Commission pursuant to Rule 12g3-2(b) under the Securities Exchange Act
of 1934.
Yes o No þ
SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized. Date: June 24, 2004
TELE CENTRO OESTE CELLULAR HOLDING COMPANY |
||||
By: | /S/ Luis André Carpintero Blanco | |||
Luis André Carpintero Blanco | ||||
Investor Relations Officer | ||||
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This press release may contain forward-looking statements. These statements are statements that are not historical facts, and are based on managements current view and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. The words anticipates, believes, estimates, expects, plans and similar expressions, as they relate to the company, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Statements regarding the declaration or payment of dividends, the implementation of principal operating and financing strategies and capital expenditure plans, the direction of future operations and the factors or trends affecting financial condition, liquidity or results of operations are examples of forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect the current views of management and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. There is no guarantee that the expected events, trends or results will actually occur. The statements are based on many assumptions and factors, including general economic and market conditions, industry conditions, and operating factors. Any changes in such assumptions or factors could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations.
Condomínio São Luiz Tower I 8th Floor Av. Pres. Juscelino Kubitschek, 1830 04543-900 São Paulo Sp Brazil |
Telephone: (11) 3523-5372 Fax: (11) 3523-5499 |
São Paulo, April 28th, 2004.
To
Board of Directors
TCO Celular Participações S.A.
SCS Quadra 2 BL C 226, 7th floor
Brasília DF Brazil
Dear Sirs.
As per your request, we present the economic-financial valuation report of the companies TCO Celular Participações S.A. (TCO Holdings or TCO); Teleacre Celular S.A., Telegoiás Celular S.A., Telemat Celular S.A., Telems Celular S.A., Teleron Celular S.A. and Norte Brasil Telecom S.A. (TCO Operators), based on their future profits projection, by applying the Discounted Cash Flow methodology.
The values obtained from the TCO Holdings and TCO Operators economic-financial valuations should be used for the following purposes: i) as value references for the TCO Operators stocks merger operation into TCO Holdings according to the Federal Law n. 6.404/76, Article 252, §1st; ii) as value references for the goodwill transference operation involving the Vivo Group companies Telesp Celular Participações S.A. (TCP) and TCO according to the CVM Instruction n. 319. Therefore, the economic-financial valuations presented herein should not be used for any other purpose.
The reference date of this report is March 31st, 2004, and the considered projection period is 9 (nine) years and 9 (nine) months from April 2004 to December 2013 and perpetuity.
This report addresses the objective, scope, procedures and methodology adopted and our conclusions on the marketing and operating assumptions that involved the calculation of the companies economic values.
As a final result of this work, we obtained the fair market values ranging from:
i) | R$ 6,758,716 thousand (six billion, seven hundred fifty-eight million, seven hundred sixteen thousand reais) to R$ 8,712,015 thousand (eight billion, seven hundred twelve million and fifteen thousand reais) for TCO Holdings (Consolidated); | |||
ii) | R$ 141,839 thousand (one hundred forty-one million, eight hundred thirty-nine thousand reais) to R$ 178,388 thousand (one hundred seventy-eight million, three hundred eighty-eight thousand reais) for Teleacre; | |||
iii) | R$ 1,761,203 thousand (one billion, seven hundred sixty-one million, two hundred and three thousand reais) to R$ 2,217,425 thousand (two billion, two hundred seventeen million, four hundred twenty-five thousand reais) for Telegoiás; |
Condomínio São Luiz Tower I 8th Floor Av. Pres. Juscelino Kubitschek, 1830 04543-900 São Paulo Sp Brazil |
Telephone: (11) 3523-5372 Fax: (11) 3523-5499 |
iv) | R$ 1,173,650 thousand (one billion, one hundred seventy-three million, six hundred fifty thousand reais) to R$ 1,472,669 thousand (one billion, four hundred seventy-two million, six hundred sixty-nine thousand reais) for Telemat; | |||
v) | R$ 737,915 thousand (seven hundred thirty-seven million, nine hundred fifteen thousand reais) to R$ 923,703 thousand (nine hundred twenty-three million, seven hundred and three thousand reais) for Telems; | |||
vi) | R$ 315,139 thousand (three hundred fifteen million, one hundred thirty-nine thousand reais) to R$ 398,332 thousand (three hundred ninety-eight million, three hundred thirty-two thousand reais) for Teleron; | |||
vii) | R$ 1,214,947 thousand (one billion, two hundred fourteen million, nine hundred forty-seven thousand reais) to R$ 1,660,248 thousand (one billion, six hundred sixty million, two hundred forty-eight thousand reais) for Norte Brasil Telecom; |
For the TCO Operators stocks merger operation into TCO Holdings (except for Norte Brasil Telecom, which is a full controlled company yet) we obtained the following average ratios from the division of TCO Holdings (Consolidated) average fair market value per 1,000 stocks by each TCO Operators average fair market value per stock:
ii) 3.921 for Teleacre;
iii) 14.370 for Telegoiás;
iv) 90.563 for Telemat;
v) 31.957 for Telems;
vi) 23.886 for Teleron;
We point out that, if the mentioned ratios are utilized, the stocks substitution relations fixed on the corporate documentation related to the stocks merger operation will guarantee, by the economic-financial point of view, equal treatment for all the companies involved. The mentioned ratios consider the total number of stocks offered by the companies, except the stocks in treasury, without any class or type distinction.
We thank you for the opportunity you have given us to cooperate with TCO and the assistance given by your officers and staff during this work.
Sincerely,
Carlos Alberto Miranda
|
Sérgio Almeida | |||
Partner
|
Manager | |||
Ernst & Young
|
Ernst & Young TAS |
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Transaction Advisory Services
I GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
To reach the objective of our economic-financial valuation work, we have applied procedures, always based on historical, economic and market facts. The amounts presented herein result from historical financial and managerial data analysis, as well as projections of future events and the following should be taken into consideration:
| All considerations presented are derived from the opinions of the advisors of Ernst & Young Consultores Associados Ltda. (Ernst & Young) and the TCO professionals, based on data and facts contained herein; | |||
| None of Ernst & Young advisors, partners or professionals has any financial interest in TCO Operators or their controller company TCO Holdings, which characterizes their independence. The fees estimated for carrying out this job are not based on nor related to the values reported herein; | |||
| This job was carried out based on accounting and management information provided by executives and employees of TCO, and were considered to be true, since the scope of this project does not include any type of auditing procedure. Therefore, Ernst & Young does not assume any future responsibility for the accuracy of the historical information used in this report; | |||
| Our work includes the gathering of information from the directors and managers of TCO that we deem reliable. However, we do not undertake any further responsibility for its accuracy; |
| Some of the considerations described herein are based on future events, which were part of the TCO expectations and those of the advisors at the time of the valuations. Such future events may not occur and the results presented herein may be altered; | |||
| We were informed that the Business Plans that were furnished and used in our analysis have been approved by the TCO Board of Directors. With no harm on this fact, nor the TCO or its managers or shareholders impelled any restriction about our skills in (i) obtaining all the requested information to issue the present Economic-financial Analysis and reach the conclusions presented herein; (ii) choosing with independence the methodologies we have used to reach conclusions presented in this Economic-financial Analysis; and (iii) reaching with independence the conclusions presented in this Economic-financial Analysis; | |||
| No investigations were carried out with regards to proprietary titles of the companies involved in this report, nor were checks carried out as to the existence of encumbrance or liens on this company; | |||
| We did not take into consideration the tax effects that the TCO shareholders may suffer from the TCO Operators stocks merger operation into TCO Holdings, nor any charges, taxes or expenses that may occur upon the completion of this merger operation; |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 1 |
| Ernst & Young is not to be held responsible for updating this report in regards to events and circumstances that may occur subsequent to the reference date of this report; | |||
| We have not had an opportunity to expose the companies shares, businesses or assets to the marketplace. Accordingly, we are unable to conclude whether or not potential purchasers might be willing to pay an amount for the businesses which is in excess of our fair market values estimates as set out herein; | |||
| This report objective is to support the goodwill amortization generated on the merger of TCO into TCP according to the CVM Instruction n. 319. However this report makes no recommendation regarding the period for this goodwill amortization; | |||
| The values presented herein refer to the fair market value for TCO Operators. However the values do not reflect necessarily that ones involved on the TCO Operators stocks merger operation into TCO Holdings; and | |||
| To reach our objective, the following procedures were carried out: |
1. | Independent analysis of the TCO Holdings (Consolidated and Non-consolidated) and TCO Operators Business Plans provided by TCO, mainly related to the revenues, expenses, taxes, depreciation and capex accounts; | |||
2. | Discussion with the TCO management regarding the market, business and economic assumptions applied on the TCO Holdings (Consolidated and Not-consolidated) and TCO Operators Business Plans, as well as to check out its reasonability with similar operations in the same markets of the evaluated companies; | |||
3. | Checking of the Macroeconomic assumptions, such as exchange rate and inflation applied on the TCO Holdings (Consolidated and Not-consolidated) and TCO Operators Business Plans. This check out was made by comparing the information with government official information; | |||
4. | Updating of the Population growth projections information of the Brazilian States covered by TCO Operators; | |||
5. | Economic-financial valuation of TCO Holdings (Consolidated) and TCO Operators throughout the calculation of the Free Cash Flow components, such as Net Profit, Depreciation, Working Capital, Capital Expenditures and Perpetuity, by applying the Discounted Cash Flow methodology; and | |||
6. | Calculation of a Discount Rate that accurately reflects the costs of TCO Holdings and TCO Operators. That Discount Rate was used to bring forward the companies projected Cash Flows. |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 2 |
II LIMITATION ON DISTRIBUTION AND UTILIZATION
This report and the opinions as well as the conclusions contained herein are meant to be used by TCO and its shareholders. However, we are aware of TCO Holdings and TCO Operators are joint-stock companies and should notice all the interested parties any relevant information of their management, including the present report and its objectives. For any other interested part, TCO must respect the following statements:
1. Ernst & Young should be notified in regards to any distribution of this report, which should be previously approved by our company;
2. The receiving party should agree, in writing, not to distribute this report to any other party belonging to another financial group; and
3. This report should not be distributed in separate parts.
Any user of this report should be aware of the conditions on which this work was based, as well as the Brazilian market and economic situation.
Ernst & Young will answer any questions that the receiving party may have with regard to this report, at the expense of TCO, only if the scope of such questions and answers are previously agreed between TCO and the receiving party.
The results of this report depend on suppositions, which serve as the basis for the projections. The projected cash flows (April 2004 to December 2013) used for the TCO Holdings and TCO Operators economic-financial valuations may differ substantially from the real cash flows, since the suppositions represent future estimates.
The factors that may result in differences between projected cash flows and actual results include changes in the external environment, changes in the internal operating environment of the companies and differences between models. The Discounted Cash Flow method does not anticipate changes in the external and internal environments in which the company is involved, except for those mentioned in this report. The projections are based on our understanding of the companies products and on experiences acquired, together with the reports supplied by the companies and discussions with the management team.
This report approaches methods and suppositions used for the development of cash flows. The results will only be relevant for the users subsequent to their understanding of the methods and premises involved in the projections.
The values obtained from the TCO Holdings and TCO Operators economic-financial valuations should be used for the following purposes: i) as value references for the TCO Operators stocks merger operation into TCO Holdings according to the Federal Law n. 6.404/76, Article 252, §1st; ii) as value references for the goodwill transference operation involving the Vivo Group companies Telesp Celular Participações S.A. (TCP) and TCO according to the CVM Instruction n. 319. Therefore, the economic-financial valuations presented herein should not be used for any other purpose.
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 3 |
III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Please follow the current organization chart of TCO Holdings and TCO Operators:
TCO Holdings Consolidated
Source: TCO
As previously mentioned, our work aimed to perform the TCO Holdings and TCO Operators economic-financial valuations for the following purposes: i) as value references for the TCO Operators stocks merger operation into TCO Holdings according to the Federal Law n. 6.404/76, Article 252, §1st; ii) as value references for the goodwill transference operation involving the Vivo Group companies Telesp Celular Participações S.A. (TCP) and TCO according to the CVM Instruction n. 319. Therefore, the economic-financial valuations presented herein should not be used for any other purpose.
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 4 |
As a final result of this work, we obtained the following fair market values for TCO Holdings (Consolidated) and TCO Operators. It is important to state that the values obtained for TCO Holdings include, besides its interest in TCO Operators, the operational activity as the Band A mobile operator in Brasília:
Company Value | Company Value | Company Value | ||||||||||
(R$ 000) | (R$ 000) | (R$ 000) | ||||||||||
Companies | Minimum | Mean | Maximum | |||||||||
TCO Holdings (Consolidated) |
6,758,716 | 7,586,044 | 8,712,015 | |||||||||
TCO (AC) |
141,839 | 157,332 | 178,388 | |||||||||
TCO (GO) |
1,761,203 | 1,954,589 | 2,217,425 | |||||||||
TCO (MT) |
1,173,650 | 1,300,437 | 1,472,669 | |||||||||
TCO (MS) |
737,915 | 816,654 | 923,703 | |||||||||
TCO (RO) |
315,139 | 350,397 | 398,332 | |||||||||
TCO (NBT) |
1,214,947 | 1,403,002 | 1,660,248 |
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young |
The above mentioned values would result in the following values per share for TCO Holdings (Consolidated) and TCO Operators:
Stocks | R$ 000 | R$ 000 | R$ 000 | |||||||||||||
(x1000) | per Share | per Share | per Share | |||||||||||||
Companies | Minimum | Mean | Maximum | |||||||||||||
TCO Holdings (Cons.) (*) |
375,656 | 17.99 | 20.19 | 23.19 | ||||||||||||
TCO (AC) |
1,987 | 71.39 | 79.19 | 89.78 | ||||||||||||
TCO (GO) |
6,735 | 261.48 | 290.19 | 329.22 | ||||||||||||
TCO (MT) |
711 | 1,650.54 | 1,828.84 | 2,071.06 | ||||||||||||
TCO (MS) |
1,265 | 583.12 | 645.34 | 729.93 | ||||||||||||
TCO (RO) |
726 | 433.83 | 482.37 | 548.36 |
(*) 1,000 stocks. Total number of stocks less the stocks in treasury. | ||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young |
Ratio per | Ratio per | Ratio per | ||||||||||||||
TCO Stock | TCO Stock | TCO Stock | TCO Stock | |||||||||||||
Companies | Minimum | Mean | Maximum | |||||||||||||
TCO Holdings (Cons.) (*) |
1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||||||||||||
TCO (AC) |
1.000 | 3.968 | 3.921 | 3.871 | ||||||||||||
TCO (GO) |
1.000 | 14.533 | 14.370 | 14.196 | ||||||||||||
TCO (MT) |
1.000 | 91.738 | 90.563 | 89.302 | ||||||||||||
TCO (MS) |
1.000 | 32.410 | 31.957 | 31.474 | ||||||||||||
TCO (RO) |
1.000 | 24.113 | 23.886 | 23.645 |
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 5 |
IV VALUATION METHODOLOGIES
There are no determined formulas or rules that may be used in any circumstances in the valuation of companies or enterprises. However, academics and market professionals have developed valuation approaches and methods generally accepted.
These ways and methods differ from one to another in the sense that each one focuses different aspects of a business. Even so, and even if formally correct, when applied in practice, they present distinctive aspects and problems for the treatment of the companies core variables.
The valuation approaches and, among them, the valuation methods, should thus be carefully chosen in accordance with the nature and features of the business to be valuated. They also depend on the purpose of the valuation exercise.
The main approaches and methods proposed may be summarized as follows:
| Financial Approach |
| Discounted Cash Flow Method | |||
| Dividend Discount Method |
| Market Approach |
| Analysis of Comparable Transactions | |||
| Analysis of Peer Companies |
| Cost Approach |
| Book Value or Adjusted Book Value | |||
| Liquidation Value |
For the TCO Holdings and TCO Operators economic-financial valuations we have applied the Discounted Cash Flow methodology (DCF).
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 6 |
IV.1 Discounted Cash Flow
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method is recognized worldwide as the one that more appropriately translates the economic value of an enterprise, company or business that is an integral part of a larger structure, in the operational phase or in the project stage. In this method, the company performance is analyzed under the operational focus and the non-operational results (including the financial results) are dealt separately.
The economic-financial valuation task includes the future behavior projection of the company basic economical parameters. The task is developed in two consecutive stages, as follows:
| identification of economical parameters that affect the company operation; and | |||
| projection of expected results. |
TCO Holdings and TCO Operators economic parameters identification stage was based on the following: analysis of historical statements and conciliation of the companies historical data with macro-economic variables, which consider the economic, social and political environment in which the company is participating.
In the following stage, which represents the economic-financial valuation itself, we projected a scenario that seeks for a real picture of the expectancies for TCO Holdings and TCO Operators.
The projected future results were brought forward to current value by the discount rate, obtaining thus the values of the companies. Non-operating assets and liabilities are added to theses values, obtaining thus the economical values of TCO Holdings and TCO Operators on the reference date.
In this aspect, the company value was determined as per the formula below:
VN = VPFOP + VPP ± VNOP
Where,
VN
|
= | Company Value or Business Value; | ||
VPFOP
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= | Current value of operational cash flows in the projection horizon; | ||
VPP
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= | Current value of the residual value, calculated on the perpetuity method; and | ||
VNOP
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= | Value of non-operating assets and liabilities expressed on the reference date. |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 7 |
The value conclusion represents the fair market value, which is generally defined as the highest price, expressed in terms of cash equivalents, at which property would change hands between a hypothetical willing and able buyer and a hypothetical willing and able seller, acting at arms length in an open and unrestricted market, when neither is under compulsion to buy or sell and when both have reasonable knowledge of the relevant facts.
IV.1.1 Cash Flow
The following basic guidelines were adopted for the projection of the company operational cash flow:
Ä | Projection Horizon: the projection period used must reflect the natural cycle of the business and may vary in accordance with the industry or sector to be analyzed or even based on the companies strategic planning cycle; | |||
Ä | Income Tax (IR) and Social Contribution (CS) payable: for the calculation of IR & CS the current legislation was considered; | |||
Ä | Tax Offset: the Negative Basis of CS and Tax Losses to Offset, when verified, were compensated as provided by the current legislation; | |||
Ä | Tax Benefits: the goodwill tax benefits, when verified, was not considered for the present economic-financial valuation analysis; | |||
Ä | Operating working capital requirements: calculated by projecting operational applications and sources, but not considering non-operational investments on the reference date, financing nor installments of taxes overdue, which are dealt separately; | |||
Ä | Cash Flow: to obtain the Cash Flow which determined the values of the businesses, we started from the projection of the company profit (not considering non-operational results), subtracted the taxes calculated on this profit, added the depreciation and amortization expenses. For fixed assets, investments were deduced and eventual working capital needs were considered; and | |||
Ä | Residual Value: the Residual Value expresses the cash flow generated after the projection horizon considered. The most used method for the calculation of the residual value is the perpetuity method, which calculates the residual value as being the current value of a cash flow considered as standard perpetuated after the last year of projection. |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 8 |
IV.1.2 Discount Rate
The discount rate used to determine the current operational cash flow of TCO Holdings and TCO Operators, corresponds to the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).
The Weighted Average Cost of Capital is the appropriate rate to discount the operational cash flows because it reflects the capital providers opportunity cost, weighted by the companies capital structure.
The Weighted Average Cost of Capital is defined by the following formula:
WACC = (E/(E+D)) * RE + (D/(E+D)) * RD
Where,
E
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= | Equity; | ||
D
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= | Debt; | ||
RE
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= | Cost of Equity; | ||
RD
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= | Cost of Debt. |
IV.1.3 Capital Structure
For the calculation of the discount rate, we used an optimal capital structure provided by TCO management, which we considered reliable obtaining thus the parameters D (debt) and E (equity).
The Cost of Equity (RE)
Ä | The cost of equity is assessed through the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which shows the expected return and level of risk to the investor. The calculation of this risk takes into account three factors: the country, sectorial and liquidity risks. | |||
Ä | To estimate the cost of financing through equity, data from the U.S. market was used, since Brazilian stock market data may cause distortions in the model. Thus it is necessary to add to the model the Brazil Risk. |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 9 |
The CAPM model equation is:
RE = RF+β* [E(RM) - RF] + aBR
Where:
RF
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= | Yield of an asset that presents no risks; | ||
β
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= | Systematic risk compared to peer companies; | ||
[E(RM)-RF]
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= | Expected return of market portfolio compared to the return rate of an asset that presents no risk; and | ||
αBR
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= | Brazil Risk (*) |
(*) The Brazil Risk return considered is the C-Bond. This is the government bond of best market liquidity. |
The following procedure is adopted to define Betas:
| Identification and selection of peer companies (when it is not possible to obtain significant Betas of the companies being valuated); | |||
| Determination of its co-relations with the relevant stock markets; and | |||
| Calculation of the weighted Betas which will be used to determine the risk of each companies/businesses unit. |
It is important to note that the Betas observed in the capital markets for peer companies includes the different levels of leverage of these companies. Therefore, it is necessary to extract the leverage factor in order to calculate the risk factor determined by the market on the operational risks inherent to the businesses. For such, the following formula is applied:
#d=#/[1+(1-T)*(D/E)]
Where:
βd
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= | De-leveraged Beta risk of comparable companies shares, less the leverage of each one of them; | ||
β
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= | Leveraged Beta risk of comparable companies shares, plus the leverage of each one of them; | ||
T
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= | Income tax and social contribution rates for each comparable company; and | ||
D/E
|
= | Debt/equity of each comparable company. |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 10 |
After defining the capital structure of the company/unit, the new Beta should be calculated, now re-leveraged, based on the following formula:
βr=βd*[1+(1-T)*(D/E)]
Where,
βr
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= | Re-leveraged Beta to be used as a basis for the calculation of financing cost (provided by its own sources); | ||
βd
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= | De-leveraged Beta risk of comparable companies shares, less the leverage factor of each one of them; | ||
T
|
= | Income tax and social contribution rate of the company under analysis; and | ||
D/E
|
= | Debt/equity of the company under analysis. |
The Cost of Debt (RD):
The cost of capital measures the companies cost of borrowings for the financing of projects. In general terms it is determined by the following variables:
| The current level of interest rates; | |||
| The risk of the companies default; and | |||
| The fiscal benefits associated to the financing (debt). |
The Income Tax and Social Contribution rates have a direct bearing on the cost of debt, since these payments are deductible for tax purposes. Thus, the cost of debt is given by the following formula:
RD = RB * (1 T)
Where,
RD
|
= | Cost of Debt; | ||
RB
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= | Real Rate of the Debt; and | ||
T
|
= | Social Contribution and Income Tax Rate. |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 11 |
The cost of debt is not the coupon rate on bonds that the companies have outstanding, nor the rate at which the companies were able to borrow in the past. Though these may determine the real interest cost that the companies will have to pay in the current year, they do not determine the after-tax cost of the debt. Basically, the rate to be considered would be the one that the companies could borrow money in the future.
IV.1.4 Residual Value/Perpetuity Method
The most used method for the calculation of the residual value is the perpetuity method, which calculates the residual value as being the current value of a cash flow considered as standard perpetuated after the last year of projection.
For the period subsequent to the projected horizon, this method is based on some premises, as follows:
Ä | The companies obtain constant margins, constant turnovers and constant returns on the invested capital; | |||
Ä | The companies invest a steady proportion of the gross operating cash flow, enough to replace the annual depreciation and maintain the companies operating in perfect conditions; and | |||
Ä | The companies obtain a return equal to the Weighted Average Cost of Capital - WACC on any new investment in the period subsequent to that projected. |
The residual value on the date of the last projected flow is given by the following formula:
Residual Value = Adjusted Operating Cash Flow * (1+ g)
WACC g
Where:
g
|
= | growth rate |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 12 |
V MARKET ANALYSIS
V.1 Mobile Telephony Market
The demand for mobile telephones in Brazil has a different characteristic from that observed in developed countries. In these countries, where the demand for conventional telephony has been fully supplied, the mobile phone is an extra convenience. In Brazil, the mobile telephone service has a higher fee but it allows a quicker expansion. So it became an alternative for a huge not attended demand for conventional telephony.
This demand profile allowed the pre-paid subscribers base to quickly overcome the post-paid base, representing 72% of the mobile telephone plant in 2002, against 38% in 1999. It implied in a decrease of the average revenues per user from R$73/per month (1999) to R$45/per month (2002) because of the low revenues generated by a pre-paid subscriber in relation to the post-paid ones.
The solution for this problem has been the stimulation of the traffic with the wireless services for data transmission and Internet access increase.
V.2 The Market in 2003
Unlike other sectors in the Brazilian economy, the one dedicated to mobile phones has shown good results in 2003. Such positive evolution may be accounted by an increase in the number of operators and by the fact that tougher competition has caused a decline in mobile phone (activation) prices. In addition, sale through traditional outlets has allowed mobile phones to be bought on credit.
The adverse economic environment (higher unemployment, lower income), which kept consumers away from higher price appliances, led demand towards mobile phones, mainly on special dates, such as Mothers Day and Valentines Day. This had already occurred on Christmas 2002.
The technological appeal of mobile phones has also prompted sales. Such features as Internet access, software download and embedded cameras have kept the market active.
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 13 |
VI COMPANY ANALYSIS
TCO Holdings controls six mobile phone operators: Teleacre Celular S.A., Telegoiás Celular S.A., Telemat Celular S.A., Telems Celular S.A., Teleron Celular S.A. and Norte Brasil Telecom S.A., in 11 Brazilian states and in the Federal District: Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Rondônia and Tocantins Area 7 - and Acre, Amazonas, Amapá, Maranhão, Pará and Roraima - Area 8.
Established on May 22nd, 1998, Tele Centro Oeste Celular Participações S.A. TCO Celular emerged upon the privatization of Sistema Telebrás, when former holding company Telebrás was restructured and divided into 12 new holding companies. On June 29th, 1998, when the Federal Government sold its ownership interest in the 12 holding companies, TCO Celular was acquired by Splice do Brasil Telecomunicações, and Eletrônica S.A. through its subsidiary BID S.A..
TCO Celular acquired, at the auction, the right to exploit mobile phone Band B in concession Area 8, which comprises Brazils Northern Region and the State of Maranhão. In October 1999, Norte Brasil Telecom S.A. NBT commenced its operations with 100% digital technology (TDMA).
In April 2001, TCO IP a wholly owned subsidiary of TCO Celular was established. TCO IPs main business purpose is that of providing telecommunication services in general, including data and multimedia telecommunication, both within the Brazilian territory and internationally.
On April 26th, 2002, TCO Celular held a Special Meeting where the merger of Telebrasília Celular S.A. into the Company and the transfer of the absorbed entitys mobile phone concession rights were approved.
On January 16th, 2003, TCO Celular advised its shareholders and the public that it had noticed (through its controlling shareholder) about the Preliminary Stock Purchase Agreement between its controlling shareholder and Brasilcel N.V. for transfer of majority interest in the Company to Telesp Celular Participações S.A. or other corporation belonging in the Brasilcel N.V. group (a Joint Venture of Portugal Telecom, SGPS, S.A., PT Móveis, SGPS, S.A. and Telefónica Móviles, S.A.).
On April 28th, 2003, TCO Celular announced the transfer of majority ownership interest in the Company to Telesp Celular Participações S.A. The financial settlement of the operation and the transfer of shares representing majority ownership interest in TCO took place on the same date.
In February 2003, TCO, as a holding company for mobile phone services (SMC) in Regions 7 and 8 and holder of 3.18 million clients (March/2003), decided to substitute its SMC Concession Contracts for the Personal Mobile Phone Services Authorization Statement (SMP) in regions I (sub-frequency B) and II (sub-frequency A) of the General Plan for Concession Grants PGO.
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 14 |
VII GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS
The general assumptions adopted, so as to faithfully and realistically reflect the companies operations, are described below:
Ä | The Valuation reference date is March 31st, 2004; | |||
Ä | This valuation considered the projective period of 9 (nine) years and 9 (nine) months between April 2004 and December 2013 and perpetuity; | |||
Ä | The Valuation works considered the TCO Holdings and TCO Operators Business Plans provided by TCO management; | |||
Ä | The projections were made in nominal currency considering the inflation projections provided by TCO, which we considered reliable by comparing them with the Brazilian Central Bank projections. The projected Cash Flows were converted into American Dollars using the average exchange rate projections. The projected Cash Flow sum was converted again to Brazilian Real using the exchange rate of the reference date (US$/R$ 2,91); | |||
Ä | The results projection started from the Revenues net of taxes and deductions. This way, we considered that eventual taxes and deductions gains/losses were completely transferred to the customers, and they would not affect the companies margins; | |||
Ä | The calculation of Social Contribution tax considered the rate established by current legislation (Law n. 10,637 as of December 30th, 2002), namely 9% on Earnings Before Taxes. The calculation of Income Tax was also based on applicable legislation (Law n. 9,430 as of December 27th, 1996), namely 15% on Earnings Before Taxes and a 10% surcharge on amounts in excess of R$ 240 thousand; | |||
Ä | We considered a sensibility of 1% (up/down) over the discount rate for all the evaluated companies; | |||
Ä | We considered a nominal growth rate ranging from 3.5% to 4.5% for the TCO Holdings and TCO Operators perpetuity calculations. These rates reflect the sensibility of a population growth on the stated covered by the TCO Operators and part of the projected inflation; | |||
Ä | The TCO Holdings (Non-consolidated) economic-financial valuation based on the Discounted Cash Flow methodology considers, besides its shareholding in TCO Operators, the operational activity as Band A operator in Brasília; and | |||
Ä | TCO IP, a company fully controlled by TCO, was not valuated because its numbers were considered insignificant in relation to the other valuated companies, as can be seen on the TCO Operators Financial Statements as of March 31st, 2004. This way, the value of this investment was added according to the value presented on the valuations reference date. |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 15 |
VIII DISCOUNT RATE
The main assumptions for the discount rate calculation are shown below:
COMPANY |
β |
D/E |
T |
βd |
||||||||||||
Vodafone Group Plc (ADR) |
0.85 | 12.0 | % | 36.9 | % | 0.79 | ||||||||||
Telefonica Moviles, S.A. (ADR) |
0.91 | 176.0 | % | 35.6 | % | 0.43 | ||||||||||
Nextel Communications |
2.12 | 172.0 | % | 14.4 | % | 0.86 | ||||||||||
America Movil S.A. de C.V (ADR) |
1.91 | 96.0 | % | 37.9 | % | 1.20 | ||||||||||
Average
Unleveraged Beta |
0.82 | |||||||||||||||
Source: Market Guide / Ernst & Young |
Where,
β
|
| Levered Beta of peer companies; | ||
D/E
|
| Third Party Capital /Own Capital Ration (Leverage); | ||
T
|
| Income Tax Rate (average for the last 5 years); and | ||
βd
|
| Unleveraged Beta of peer companies. |
ITEM |
% |
SOURCE |
PERIOD |
|||||
RF USA (T-Note 10 years)
|
4.43 | % | Bloomberg | April 26th, 2004 | ||||
Brazil Risk (*)
|
6.03 | % | Bloomberg | April 26th, 2004 | ||||
Risk Premium [E(Rm)-Rf]
|
3.70 | % | Financial Forecast Center | 1929 - 2003 | ||||
Projected IT&SC Rate
|
34.00 | % | Legislation/ Ernst&Young | Projection Period | ||||
Releveraged Beta
|
1.05 | TCO / Ernst & Young | April 2004 | |||||
Debt Rate
|
17.05 | % | TCO | Projection Period |
(*) For Brazil Risk purposes, we considered the C-Bond spread as of April 26th, 2004, which resulted in a Brazil Risk of 6.03%. |
Weighted | ||||||||||||||||
Cost of | Cost of | |||||||||||||||
Item |
%* |
Capital |
Capital |
|||||||||||||
Debt |
D | 30 | % | 11.25 | % | 3.38 | % | |||||||||
Equity |
E | 70 | % | 14.35 | % | 10.04 | % | |||||||||
WACC |
13.42 | % | ||||||||||||||
* | For Valuation purposes we considered an optimal capital structure, considered as the best one to reflect the evaluated companies future expectancies. | |
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 16 |
IX RESULTS FOUND
TCO HOLDINGS1
Company Economic Value
In R$000 with exception for taxes
ITEM |
Minimum |
Mean |
Maximum |
|||||||||
Discount Rate (WACC) |
14.42 | % | 13.42 | % | 12.42 | % | ||||||
Perpetuity Growth |
3.50 | % | 4.00 | % | 4.50 | % | ||||||
Cash Flows Net Present Value |
911,248 | 948,349 | 987,895 | |||||||||
(+) Perpetuity Net Present Value |
618,348 | 781,206 | 1,013,339 | |||||||||
(=) Operating Value |
1,529,597 | 1,729,554 | 2,001,234 | |||||||||
(+) Non-operating Assets |
294,946 | 294,946 | 294,946 | |||||||||
(+) Business Value interest in Teleacre |
139,584 | 154,830 | 175,552 | |||||||||
(+) Business Value interest in Telegoiás |
1,712,066 | 1,900,056 | 2,155,559 | |||||||||
(+) Business Value interest in Telemat |
1,149,003 | 1,273,128 | 1,441,743 | |||||||||
(+) Business Value interest in Telems |
727,658 | 805,303 | 910,863 | |||||||||
(+) Business Value interest in Teleron |
306,662 | 340,971 | 387,617 | |||||||||
(+) Business Value interest in NBT |
1,214,947 | 1,403,002 | 1,660,248 | |||||||||
(-) Non-operating Liabilities |
(315,747 | ) | (315,747 | ) | (315,747 | ) | ||||||
Company Value |
6,758,716 | 7,586,044 | 8,712,015 | |||||||||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young |
Non-operating Assets |
R$000 |
|||
Cash and banks |
98,831 | |||
Recoverable taxes |
67,929 | |||
Interest on Equity Receivable |
97,637 | |||
Loan/swap (financial) |
5,284 | |||
Investments/Other Assets |
25,265 | |||
Total |
294,946 | |||
Non-operating Liabilities |
R$000 |
|||
Loan/swap (financial) |
76,869 | |||
Profit sharing |
127,916 | |||
Provision for contingencies |
109,281 | |||
Other obligations |
1,681 | |||
Total |
315,747 | |||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young | ||
1 | The operating amounts obtained derives from the activities of TCO Holdings (formerly known as Telebrasilia) as mobile phone operator in Brasília. The economic amounts obtained consolidate the flows of the Brasília operation and the ownership interest that the company has in the economic amounts of TCO Operators. |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 17 |
TELEACRE
Company Economic Value
In R$000 with exception for taxes
ITEM |
Minimum |
Mean |
Maximum |
|||||||||
Discount Rate (WACC) |
14.42 | % | 13.42 | % | 12.42 | % | ||||||
Perpetuity Growth |
3.50 | % | 4.00 | % | 4.50 | % | ||||||
Cash Flows Net Present Value |
72,004 | 74,862 | 77,908 | |||||||||
(+) Perpetuity Net Present Value |
47,974 | 60,609 | 78,619 | |||||||||
(=) Operating Value |
119,978 | 135,471 | 156,527 | |||||||||
(+) Non-operating Assets |
30,060 | 30,060 | 30,060 | |||||||||
(-) Non-operating Liabilities |
(8,199 | ) | (8,199 | ) | (8,199 | ) | ||||||
Company Value |
141,839 | 157,332 | 178,388 | |||||||||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young |
Non-operating Assets |
R$000 |
|||
Cash and banks |
26,494 | |||
Recoverable taxes |
3,186 | |||
Interest on Equity Receivable |
| |||
Loan/swap (financial) |
347 | |||
Investments/Other Assets |
33 | |||
Total |
30,060 | |||
Non-operating Liabilities | R$000 | |||
Loan/swap (financial) |
5,089 | |||
Profit sharing |
2,928 | |||
Provision for contingencies |
96 | |||
Other obligations |
86 | |||
Total |
8,199 | |||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 18 |
TELEGOIÁS
Company Economic Value
In R$000 with exception for taxes
ITEM |
Minimum |
Mean |
Maximum |
|||||||||
Discount Rate (WACC) |
14.42 | % | 13.42 | % | 12.42 | % | ||||||
Perpetuity Growth |
3.50 | % | 4.00 | % | 4.50 | % | ||||||
Cash Flows Net Present Value |
881,346 | 916,965 | 954,925 | |||||||||
(+) Perpetuity Net Present Value |
599,020 | 756,787 | 981,665 | |||||||||
(=) Operating Value |
1,480,367 | 1,673,752 | 1,936,589 | |||||||||
(+) Non-operating Assets |
401,997 | 401,997 | 401,997 | |||||||||
(-) Non-operating Liabilities |
(121,161 | ) | (121,161 | ) | (121,161 | ) | ||||||
Company Value |
1,761,203 | 1,954,589 | 2,217,425 | |||||||||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
Non-operating Assets |
R$000 |
|||
Cash and banks |
353,784 | |||
Recoverable taxes |
47,166 | |||
Interest on Equity Receivable |
| |||
Loan/swap (financial) |
8 | |||
Investments/Other Assets |
1,040 | |||
Total |
401,997 | |||
Non-operating Liabilities |
R$000 | |||
Loan/swap (financial) |
81,614 | |||
Profit sharing |
38,205 | |||
Provision for contingencies |
855 | |||
Other obligations |
487 | |||
Total |
121,161 |
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 19 |
TELEMAT
Company Economic Value
In R$000 with exception for taxes
ITEM |
Minimum |
Mean |
Maximum |
|||||||||
Discount Rate (WACC) |
14.42 | % | 13.42 | % | 12.42 | % | ||||||
Perpetuity Growth |
3.50 | % | 4.00 | % | 4.50 | % | ||||||
Cash Flows Net Present Value |
591,118 | 614,692 | 639,804 | |||||||||
(+) Perpetuity Net Present Value |
391,891 | 495,105 | 642,225 | |||||||||
(=) Operating Value |
983,010 | 1,109,797 | 1,282,029 | |||||||||
(+) Non-operating Assets |
216,556 | 216,556 | 216,556 | |||||||||
(-) Non-operating Liabilities |
(25,916 | ) | (25,916 | ) | (25,916 | ) | ||||||
Company Value |
1,173,650 | 1,300,437 | 1,472,669 | |||||||||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
Non-operating Assets |
R$000 |
|||
Cash and banks |
172,361 | |||
Recoverable taxes |
30,352 | |||
Interest on Equity Receivable |
| |||
Loan/swap (financial) |
13,589 | |||
Investments/Other Assets |
254 | |||
Total |
216,556 | |||
Non-operating Liabilities |
R$000 |
|||
Loan/swap (financial) |
2,201 | |||
Profit sharing |
23,194 | |||
Provision for contingencies |
388 | |||
Other obligations |
133 | |||
Total |
25,916 | |||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 20 |
TELEMS
Company Economic Value
In R$000 with exception for taxes
ITEM |
Minimum |
Mean |
Maximum |
|||||||||
Discount Rate (WACC) |
14.42 | % | 13.42 | % | 12.42 | % | ||||||
Perpetuity Growth |
3.50 | % | 4.00 | % | 4.50 | % | ||||||
Cash Flows Net Present Value |
355,544 | 369,969 | 385,345 | |||||||||
(+) Perpetuity Net Present Value |
244,193 | 308,507 | 400,180 | |||||||||
(=) Operating Value |
599,737 | 678,477 | 785,525 | |||||||||
(+) Non-operating Assets |
177,723 | 177,723 | 177,723 | |||||||||
(-) Non-operating Liabilities |
(39,545 | ) | (39,545 | ) | (39,545 | ) | ||||||
Company Value |
737,915 | 816,654 | 923,703 | |||||||||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
Non-operating Assets |
R$000 |
|||
Cash and banks |
145,922 | |||
Recoverable taxes |
19,825 | |||
Interest on Equity Receivable |
| |||
Loan/swap (financial) |
11,855 | |||
Investments/Other Assets |
122 | |||
Total |
177,723 | |||
Non-operating Liabilities |
R$000 |
|||
Loan/swap (financial) |
21,791 | |||
Profit sharing |
17,127 | |||
Provision for contingencies |
332 | |||
Other obligations |
295 | |||
Total |
39,545 | |||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 21 |
TELERON
Company Economic Value
In R$000 with exception for taxes
ITEM |
Minimum |
Mean |
Maximum |
|||||||||
Discount Rate (WACC) |
14.42 | % | 13.42 | % | 12.42 | % | ||||||
Perpetuity Growth |
3.50 | % | 4.00 | % | 4.50 | % | ||||||
Cash Flows Net Present Value |
163,273 | 169,722 | 176,594 | |||||||||
(+) Perpetuity Net Present Value |
109,383 | 138,192 | 179,256 | |||||||||
(=) Operating Value |
272,656 | 307,914 | 355,849 | |||||||||
(+) Non-operating Assets |
52,847 | 52,847 | 52,847 | |||||||||
(-) Non-operating Liabilities |
(10,364 | ) | (10,364 | ) | (10,364 | ) | ||||||
Company Value |
315,139 | 350,397 | 398,332 | |||||||||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
Non-operating Assets |
R$000 |
|||
Cash and banks |
45,566 | |||
Recoverable taxes |
7,214 | |||
Interest on Equity Receivable |
| |||
Loan/swap (financial) |
| |||
Investments/Other Assets |
67 | |||
Total |
52,847 | |||
Non-operating Liabilities |
R$000 |
|||
Loan/swap (financial) |
3,792 | |||
Profit sharing |
5,991 | |||
Provision for contingencies |
459 | |||
Other obligations |
121 | |||
Total |
10,364 | |||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 22 |
NORTE BRASIL TELECOM
Company Economic Value
In R$000 with exception for taxes
ITEM |
Minimum |
Mean |
Maximum |
|||||||||
Discount Rate (WACC) |
14.42 | % | 13.42 | % | 12.42 | % | ||||||
Perpetuity Growth |
3.50 | % | 4.00 | % | 4.50 | % | ||||||
Cash Flows Net Present Value |
700,165 | 730,352 | 762,574 | |||||||||
(+) Perpetuity Net Present Value |
599,407 | 757,276 | 982,299 | |||||||||
(=) Operating Value |
1,299,573 | 1,487,628 | 1,744,873 | |||||||||
(+) Non-operating Assets |
133,196 | 133,196 | 133,196 | |||||||||
(-) Non-operating Liabilities |
(217,822 | ) | (217,822 | ) | (217,822 | ) | ||||||
Company Value |
1,214,947 | 1,403,002 | 1,660,248 | |||||||||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
Non-operating Assets |
R$000 |
|||
Cash and banks |
71,271 | |||
Recoverable taxes |
36,535 | |||
Interest on Equity Receivable |
| |||
Loan/swap (financial) |
(0 | ) | ||
Investments/Other Assets |
25,390 | |||
Total |
133,196 | |||
Non-operating Liabilities |
R$000 |
|||
Loan/swap (financial) |
199,663 | |||
Profit sharing |
17,395 | |||
Provision for contingencies |
722 | |||
Other obligations |
41 | |||
Total |
217,822 | |||
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 23 |
A MACROECONOMICAL ASSUMPTIONS
ITEM |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Exchange Rate (U$/R$) End of year |
2.89 | 3.07 | 3.28 | 3.44 | 3.56 | 3.69 | 3.74 | 3.80 | 3.86 | 3.91 | 3.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Exchange Rate (U$/R$) Average |
3.21 | 2.98 | 3.17 | 3.36 | 3.50 | 3.63 | 3.71 | 3.77 | 3.83 | 3.88 | 3.94 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Inflation (General Market Price Index) |
7.50 | % | 7.14 | % | 5.50 | % | 5.61 | % | 5.06 | % | 4.71 | % | 4.52 | % | 4.33 | % | 4.33 | % | 4.33 | % | 4.33 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
ICMS Value-Added Tax on Services |
25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
ICMS Value-Added Tax on Data |
25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | 25.00 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
ICMS Value-Added Tax on Terminals |
16.00 | % | 16.00 | % | 16.00 | % | 16.00 | % | 16.00 | % | 16.00 | % | 16.00 | % | 16.00 | % | 16.00 | % | 16.00 | % | 16.00 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
PIS/COFINS |
3.65 | % | 4.15 | % | 4.15 | % | 4.15 | % | 4.15 | % | 4.15 | % | 4.15 | % | 4.15 | % | 4.15 | % | 4.15 | % | 4.15 | % |
Source: TCO / Banco Central do Brasil
Exchange rate and inflation macroeconomic forecasts are based on official data issued by the Brazilian Central Bank (Bacen). As to dollar exchange rates, we considered was given to Bacen forecasts until 2008. Subsequent to the period mentioned before, currency devaluation was considered as per the differences in the Brazilian and American inflation at 1.5% per year (Power Purchase Parity - PPP).
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 25 |
B MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
Variables considered in market forecasts are: Market Size, Mobile Phone Market Penetration Rates, and TCO Holdings (Not-consolidated) and TCO Operators market share.
For Market Size forecasts, we considered the vegetative growth (according to the Brazilian Geography and Statistics Institute (IBGE)) of the regions where TCO Operators operates. Forecasts reveal a significant increase of Penetration Rates in all regions.
As competition is growing in the regions where TCO Operators operates, we considered a loss in market share in all regions.
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 26 |
TCO HOLDINGS (NonConsolidated)
Market Size TCO Holdings
Source: TCO / IBGE / Ernst & Young
Subscribers TCO Holdings
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
2 According to TCO management, the Brasília subscriber basis is characterized by consumers who hold more than one subscription. |
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 27 |
TELEACRE
Market Size Teleacre
Source: TCO / IBGE / Ernst & Young
Subscribers Teleacre
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 28 |
TELEGOIÁS
Market Size Telegoiás
Source: TCO / IBGE / Ernst & Young
Subscribers Telegoiás
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 29 |
TELEMAT
Market Size Telemat
Source: TCO / IBGE / Ernst & Young
Subscribers Telemat
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 30 |
TELEMS
Market Size Telems
Source: TCO / IBGE / Ernst & Young
Subscribers Telems
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 31 |
TELERON
Market Size Teleron
Source: TCO / IBGE / Ernst & Young
Subscribers Teleron
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 32 |
NORTE BRASIL TELECOM
Market Size Norte Brasil Telecom
Source: TCO / IBGE / Ernst & Young
Subscribers Norte Brasil Telecom
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 33 |
C NET REVENUES
For net revenue forecasts, we considered TCO Operators subscriber basis, as it grows along with the market. We also considered a moderate increase in the quantity of minutes devoted to phone use, which tends to become stable, and nominal increases in some fees.
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 34 |
TCO HOLDINGS (Non-Consolidated)
Net Revenues TCO Holdings
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
ARPU/Month TCO Holdings
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 35 |
TELEACRE
Net Revenues Teleacre
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
ARPU/Month Teleacre
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 36 |
TELEGOIÁS
Net Revenues Telegoiás
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
ARPU/Month Telegoiás
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 37 |
TELEMAT
Net Revenues Telemat
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
ARPU/Month Telemat
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 38 |
TELEMS
Net Revenues Telems
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
ARPU/Month Telems
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 39 |
TELERON
Net Revenues Teleron
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
ARPU/Month Teleron
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 40 |
NORTE BRASIL TELECOM
Net Revenues Norte Brasil Telecom
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
ARPU/Month Norte Brasil Telecom
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 41 |
D OPERATING EXPENSES
Operating expenses include operation, administration, sales, and general expenses. Forecasts are based on historical data and emphasize the points below:
| According to TCO management, Payroll grew significantly in 2004 due to the companies integration process. Other periods consider nominal growth according to Brazils inflation; |
| Interconnection Expenses fell in 2004 due to the Bill & Keep premise (based on the average fees). This drop has also impacted revenues, but, as revenues are much higher, they do not reflect the impact. |
| Network Expenses include new investment plans mainly, as they consider the constant replacement of leased circuits for company owned networks. In addition, we considered the construction of a CDMA layer, which will require leasing new circuits. |
TCO HOLDINGS (Non-Consolidated)
Total Expenses TCO Holdings
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 42 |
TELEACRE
Total Expenses Teleacre
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TELEGOIÁS
Total Expenses Telegoiás
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 43 |
TELEMAT
Total Expenses Telemat
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TELEMS
Total Expenses Telems
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 44 |
TELERON
Total Expenses Teleron
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
NORTE BRASIL TELECOM
Total Expenses Norte Brasil Telecom
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 45 |
E EBITDA and EBIT
Forecasts consider increased operating and net margins stemming mainly from revenue growth, which was caused by a greater number of subscribers and lower spending afforded by synergies occurred while restructuring the companies.
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 46 |
TCO HOLDINGS (NonConsolidated)
EBITDA (nominal R$ millions) TCO Holdings
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
EBIT (nominal R$ millions) TCO Holdings
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 47 |
TELEACRE
EBITDA (nominal R$ millions) Teleacre
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
EBIT (nominal R$ millions) Teleacre
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 48 |
TELEGOIÁS
EBITDA (nominal R$ millions) Telegoiás
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
EBIT (nominal R$ millions) Telegoiás
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 49 |
TELEMAT
EBITDA (nominal R$ millions) Telemat
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
EBIT (nominal R$ millions) Telemat
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 50 |
TELEMS
EBITDA (nominal R$ millions) Telems
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
EBIT (nominal R$ millions) Telems
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 51 |
TELERON
EBITDA (nominal R$ millions) Teleron
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
EBIT (nominal R$ millions) Teleron
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 52 |
NORTE BRASIL TELECOM
EBITDA (nominal R$ millions) Norte Brasil Telecom
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
EBIT (nominal R$ millions) Norte Brasil Telecom
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 53 |
F CAPITAL EXPENDITURES ASSUMPTIONS
New investment plans consider great network and system expansion for all TCO Operators. Investments are equivalent to approximately 17% of 2004s net revenues, reaching 7% to 8% as of 2009. In 2007, we considered great capital expenditure due to renewal of permits granted by Brazils National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel) to all TCO Operators, except Norte Brasil Telecom.
TCO HOLDINGS (NonConsolidated)
Capex TCO Holdings
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 54 |
TELEACRE
Capex Teleacre
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TELEGOIÁS
Capex Telegoiás
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 55 |
TELEMAT
Capex Telemat
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TELEMS
Capex Telems
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 56 |
TELERON
Capex Teleron
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
NORTE BRASIL TELECOM
Capex Norte Brasil Telecom
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 57 |
G OTHER ASSUMPTIONS
Depreciation
Depreciation forecasts are based on data provided by TCO management and consider depreciation of both existing fixed assets and new investments, as per depreciation rates that range from 12.5% to 20% per year.
It is important to emphasize that in some of the valuated companies, a significant drop in depreciation expenditures could be verified in 2005. Such drop is mainly due to total depreciation of two relevant accounts, namely data processing equipment and digital telephony equipment.
Non-operating results
These economic-financial valuations did not consider any financial results. When noted, balances appearing on the reference date Balance Sheets were added or subtracted from the companys value as non-operating Assets or Liabilities, respectively.
Working Capital
According to the information available, we admitted the following approximate number of days for analyzing TCO Holdings (Non-consolidated) and TCO Operators Operating Working Capital:
approximate number of days |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working Capital |
Driver |
TCO |
AC |
GO |
MT |
MS |
RO |
NBT |
||||||||||||||||||||||||
USES |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net Receivables * |
NOR | 73 | 64 | 76 | 69 | 78 | 74 | 78 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Inventories |
OPE | 29 | 18 | 28 | 12 | 17 | 22 | 25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other Assets |
NOR | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
SOURCES |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Social Obligations |
OPE | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Suppliers and consignments |
OPE | 89 | 70 | 106 | 81 | 73 | 73 | 78 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other Obligations |
OPE | 35 | 41 | 30 | 29 | 32 | 42 | 29 |
Where, NOR=Net Operating Revenue and OPE=Total Operating Expenditure
* This working capital account was deemed variable throughout forecasting due to the different nature of cash flow existing between pre-paid and post-paid services.
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 58 |
H CASH FLOW
TCO HOLDINGS (Non-Consolidated)
Cash Flow |
Apr-Dec 04 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
116,322 | 160,128 | 203,855 | 221,197 | 234,040 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
38,454 | 55,009 | 73,260 | 59,277 | 69,841 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
42,410 | 5,210 | 601 | 559 | 936 | |||||||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(108,492 | ) | (84,716 | ) | (83,719 | ) | (144,379 | ) | (74,635 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
88,694 | 135,632 | 193,998 | 136,654 | 230,181 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
29,784 | 42,768 | 57,787 | 39,033 | 63,489 |
Cash Flow |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
247,721 | 265,445 | 276,700 | 291,507 | 309,723 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
81,353 | 90,955 | 92,819 | 100,627 | 104,068 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
874 | 954 | 1,298 | 1,255 | 1,278 | |||||||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(75,135 | ) | (78,501 | ) | (79,185 | ) | (81,249 | ) | (81,695 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
254,813 | 278,853 | 291,633 | 312,139 | 333,375 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
68,591 | 73,953 | 76,199 | 80,352 | 84,550 |
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young |
Free Cash Flow TCO Holdings
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 59 |
TELEACRE
Cash Flow |
Apr-Dec 04 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
8,430 | 12,487 | 15,482 | 16,794 | 17,692 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
2,737 | 3,633 | 5,073 | 3,790 | 4,547 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
6,696 | 131 | 90 | 22 | 73 | |||||||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(7,830 | ) | (6,620 | ) | (6,040 | ) | (11,175 | ) | (4,947 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
10,034 | 9,631 | 14,605 | 9,430 | 17,366 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
3,369 | 3,037 | 4,350 | 2,694 | 4,790 |
Cash Flow |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
18,804 | 20,331 | 21,366 | 22,608 | 24,029 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
5,435 | 5,981 | 5,806 | 5,981 | 5,901 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
69 | 73 | 99 | 102 | 113 | |||||||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(4,443 | ) | (4,410 | ) | (4,192 | ) | (4,195 | ) | (4,851 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
19,865 | 21,975 | 23,079 | 24,497 | 25,192 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
5,347 | 5,828 | 6,030 | 6,306 | 6,389 |
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
Free Cash Flow Teleacre
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 60 |
TELEGOIÁS
Cash Flow |
Apr-Dec 04 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
107,861 | 159,798 | 203,375 | 219,964 | 230,482 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
43,072 | 53,269 | 72,553 | 51,367 | 60,603 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
39,223 | (2,746 | ) | (2,143 | ) | (1,814 | ) | (730 | ) | |||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(100,140 | ) | (83,489 | ) | (77,962 | ) | (141,898 | ) | (68,351 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
90,017 | 126,832 | 195,824 | 127,618 | 222,003 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
30,228 | 39,994 | 58,330 | 36,452 | 61,234 |
Cash Flow |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
242,969 | 260,850 | 271,508 | 284,365 | 300,042 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
72,677 | 81,203 | 80,327 | 85,550 | 88,107 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
(694 | ) | (567 | ) | 91 | 82 | 195 | |||||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(67,509 | ) | (70,311 | ) | (71,892 | ) | (74,382 | ) | (74,491 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
247,443 | 271,175 | 280,033 | 295,616 | 313,852 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
66,607 | 71,917 | 73,169 | 76,099 | 79,599 |
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
Free Cash Flow Telegoiás
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 61 |
TELEMAT
Cash Flow |
Apr-Dec 04 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
80,398 | 115,293 | 138,943 | 149,010 | 155,327 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
20,634 | 26,396 | 37,096 | 28,205 | 34,072 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
18,592 | (1,276 | ) | (801 | ) | (799 | ) | (161 | ) | |||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(59,456 | ) | (49,570 | ) | (46,788 | ) | (82,208 | ) | (40,786 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
60,168 | 90,844 | 128,450 | 94,208 | 148,451 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
20,205 | 28,645 | 38,262 | 26,909 | 40,946 |
Cash Flow |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
162,716 | 172,769 | 179,001 | 186,659 | 196,293 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
41,180 | 46,322 | 46,748 | 50,119 | 51,649 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
(139 | ) | (79 | ) | 253 | 262 | 295 | |||||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(40,524 | ) | (42,253 | ) | (42,921 | ) | (44,225 | ) | (44,343 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
163,233 | 176,759 | 183,081 | 192,814 | 203,894 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
43,940 | 46,877 | 47,836 | 49,635 | 51,712 |
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
Free Cash Flow Telemat
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 62 |
TELEMS
Cash Flow |
Apr-Dec 04 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
42,537 | 67,292 | 84,104 | 90,511 | 94,810 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
15,555 | 20,431 | 28,424 | 21,082 | 25,418 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
21,719 | 124 | (215 | ) | (342 | ) | (176 | ) | ||||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(42,882 | ) | (36,655 | ) | (33,438 | ) | (65,414 | ) | (29,671 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
36,930 | 51,191 | 78,875 | 45,838 | 90,381 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
12,401 | 16,142 | 23,495 | 13,093 | 24,929 |
Cash Flow |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
99,881 | 106,810 | 110,855 | 115,916 | 122,313 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
30,704 | 34,419 | 34,366 | 36,692 | 37,934 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
(147 | ) | (35 | ) | 189 | 154 | 182 | |||||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(28,812 | ) | (30,003 | ) | (31,177 | ) | (32,604 | ) | (32,578 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
101,625 | 111,190 | 114,232 | 120,158 | 127,851 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
27,356 | 29,488 | 29,847 | 30,931 | 32,426 |
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
Free Cash Flow Telems
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 63 |
TELERON
Cash Flow |
Apr-Dec 04 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
23,807 | 32,774 | 39,131 | 41,998 | 43,747 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
4,047 | 5,594 | 8,515 | 6,659 | 8,457 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
8,410 | (270 | ) | (124 | ) | (122 | ) | 61 | ||||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(15,260 | ) | (15,444 | ) | (13,618 | ) | (24,720 | ) | (11,469 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
21,004 | 22,655 | 33,904 | 23,814 | 40,796 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
7,053 | 7,144 | 10,099 | 6,802 | 11,252 |
Cash Flow |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
45,827 | 48,630 | 50,268 | 52,272 | 54,789 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
10,481 | 11,931 | 12,105 | 13,132 | 13,691 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
70 | 85 | 166 | 174 | 192 | |||||||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(11,050 | ) | (11,559 | ) | (11,973 | ) | (12,508 | ) | (12,504 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
45,328 | 49,087 | 50,567 | 53,070 | 56,168 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
12,202 | 13,018 | 13,212 | 13,661 | 14,245 |
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
Free Cash Flow Teleron
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 64 |
NORTE BRASIL TELECOM
Cash Flow |
Apr-Dec 04 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
40,578 | 90,976 | 125,430 | 151,625 | 176,980 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
43,921 | 55,131 | 38,538 | 45,018 | 50,227 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
35,877 | (5,258 | ) | (5,639 | ) | (3,105 | ) | (1,343 | ) | |||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(55,028 | ) | (57,883 | ) | (49,863 | ) | (48,393 | ) | (49,788 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
65,349 | 82,966 | 108,467 | 145,145 | 176,077 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
21,945 | 26,161 | 32,309 | 41,458 | 48,566 |
Cash Flow |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
|||||||||||||||
Net Profit/(Loss) |
200,233 | 220,292 | 245,312 | 274,821 | 300,236 | |||||||||||||||
(+) Depreciation/Amortization |
48,771 | 50,860 | 56,991 | 57,998 | 55,116 | |||||||||||||||
(+/-) Working Capital Investments |
(1,120 | ) | (936 | ) | (1,083 | ) | (1,301 | ) | (1,863 | ) | ||||||||||
(-) Capital Expenditures |
(51,119 | ) | (53,089 | ) | (55,299 | ) | (57,130 | ) | (60,710 | ) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (R$000) |
196,765 | 217,127 | 245,920 | 274,388 | 292,778 | |||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow (US$000) |
52,966 | 57,583 | 64,255 | 70,634 | 74,254 |
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
Free Cash Flow Norte Brasil Telecom
Source: TCO / Ernst & Young
TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES | 65 |