Kinsale Capital Group’s third quarter was marked by a negative market reaction, as the company reported an 8.6% year-on-year revenue decline and missed Wall Street’s sales expectations. Management pointed to intense competition in the excess and surplus (E&S) insurance market, particularly in the commercial property segment, as a key factor driving the slowdown. CEO Michael Patrick Kehoe described a shift in the business mix toward smaller accounts, noting, “with the competition in the E&S market, our book shifted slightly from larger to smaller accounts,” which, while pressuring top-line growth, helped preserve underwriting margins amid challenging market conditions.
Is now the time to buy KNSL? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) Q3 2026 highlights:
- Revenue: $454.8 million vs analyst estimates of $476.7 million (8.6% year-on-year decline, 4.6% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $5.70 vs analyst estimates of $5.11 (11.6% beat)
- Operating Margin: 27.2%, down from 36% in the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $8.30 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management’s commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls is the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our top 5 analyst questions from Kinsale Capital Group’s Q3 earnings call
- Hristian Getsov (Wells Fargo) asked about the impact of the shift toward smaller accounts on average premiums and loss ratios. Chief Underwriting Officer Stuart Winston replied that average premiums may trend slightly downward but loss ratios should remain stable.
- Andrew Kligerman (TD Cowen) questioned how much of the casualty premium growth was due to rate changes versus volume, and whether pricing kept up with loss costs. Chief Analytics Officer Salmaan K. Allibhai said pricing trends were in line with industry indices, and loss costs were manageable given current margins.
- Pablo Singzon (JPMorgan) inquired about the investment income pickup from repositioning fixed income assets. CFO Christopher R. Tangard estimated the annual benefit at $5.5–$6 million. Singzon also asked whether Kinsale could still price at historical margins; CEO Kehoe confirmed the target of a 20% ROE or better remains in place.
- Michael Phillips (Oppenheimer) probed the effects of smaller account mix on expense ratios and the role of technology in controlling costs. CEO Kehoe responded that increased automation offsets volume-related headwinds, keeping the expense ratio steady and expected to improve over time.
- Andrew Andersen (Jefferies) asked if the contraction in commercial property would moderate and about the sources of increased competition. Winston noted possible moderation but said competition remains high, particularly from MGAs and admitted carriers in property lines.
Catalysts in upcoming quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) whether new product launches and expanded broker networks can drive premium and submission growth, (2) the extent to which operational efficiency gains from technology adoption translate into lower expense ratios, and (3) signs of stabilization or improvement in competitive market conditions, especially in commercial property and casualty lines. Developments in capital allocation and the pace of AI integration will also be key indicators to watch.
Kinsale Capital Group currently trades at $364.10, down from $390.64 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
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