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Is Microsoft Stock Underperforming the Dow?

With a market cap of $2.9 trillion, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is a global technology company that develops and supports a wide range of software, services, devices, and cloud-based solutions for consumers and businesses worldwide. The company distributes its products through OEMs, partners, resellers, and direct online and retail channels.

Companies worth more than $200 billion are generally considered "mega-cap" stocks, and Microsoft fits this criterion perfectly. Its operations are organized into three main segments: Productivity and Business Processes; Intelligent Cloud; and More Personal Computing, covering products such as Microsoft 365, Azure, LinkedIn, Dynamics, Windows, Xbox, and cloud-based AI and security solutions.

 

Shares of the Redmond, Washington-based company have slipped 30.1% from its 52-week high of $555.45. MSFT stock has decreased 17.8% over the past three months, lagging behind the broader Dow Jones Industrials Average's ($DOWI) 7% rise over the same time frame.

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Longer term, MSFT stock is down 19.7% on a YTD basis, underperforming DOWI's 3% gain. Moreover, shares of Microsoft have declined 4.9% over the past 52 weeks, compared to DOWI's 14% return over the same time frame.

The stock has shown a bearish trend, trading below its 50-day moving average since November 2025.

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Despite reporting better-than-expected Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.14 and revenue of $81.27 billion on Jan. 28, Microsoft shares tumbled nearly 10% the next day as investors fixated on Azure growth slowing to 39% year-over-year, down from 40% last quarter. The reaction was compounded by weakness in the More Personal Computing segment, which posted $14.25 billion in revenue, missing the estimate and signaling softness in Windows, Surface, and gaming.

In comparison, rival Oracle Corporation (ORCL) has lagged behind MSFT stock. ORCL stock has dipped 27.1% on a YTD basis and 15.3% over the past 52 weeks.  

Despite the stock's weak performance relative to the Dow, analysts are strongly optimistic about its prospects. MSFT stock has a consensus “Strong Buy” rating overall from the 50 analysts covering the stock, and the mean price target of $595.60 represents a premium of 53.3% to current levels. 


On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

 

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