The global energy market is currently held hostage by a narrow stretch of water that most Americans couldn't find on a map a year ago. However, as of late March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has become the most important region involved in energy price volatility. With gas prices jumping over a dollar in just a few months to surpass the $4.00 mark, Americans are feeling the direct impact of a supply shock that shows no signs of slowing down. Into this chaos steps Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary, who is rooting for what he calls a "game-changer" move to end Iranian control of the waterway and restore regional stability.
The Logistics of a Global Chokepoint
To understand O’Leary’s optimism, one must first understand the sheer scale of the geography at play. The Strait of Hormuz controls roughly 20% of the world's daily oil flow. Because of its unique geographical position, Iran has historically maintained a significant advantage, bordering the waterway more extensively than the neighboring countries with which the U.S. maintains better relations.
This advantage has been weaponized. By late March 2026, after the start of an intense series of missile and airstrikes by the U.S. and Israeli militaries, Iran responded by launching thousands of missile and drone attacks targeting the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. These strikes haven't just been symbolic; they have hit vital infrastructure like the Emirates Global Aluminium plant in Abu Dhabi and various oil refineries across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Iran claims these are retaliatory strikes against U.S. and Israeli attacks, but the result is a strangled global economy.
O’Leary’s "Coalition of the Willing"
Kevin O’Leary’s solution is ambitious, bordering on the provocative. He believes the "endgame" is no longer just about the price of oil, which has swung wildly between $80 and $110 recently, but about permanent stability. O’Leary is looking toward a "coalition of the willing" composed of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar.
According to O’Leary, the fact that these nations are even discussing an end to the status quo is a massive opportunity. For an investor, the goal is to remove the Iranian "gatekeeper" status. O’Leary suggests that if this coalition, backed by the United States, can ensure the Strait remains open and secure, oil prices could stabilize at a much more manageable $50 to $70 per barrel.
While O'Leary’s vision of $70 oil is a dream for consumers, the path to getting there involves some complications. The GCC members are currently split on their approach. Bahrain has been proactive in calling for UN-backed international cooperation to safeguard maritime routes. Saudi Arabia maintains a firm stance against Iranian threats while coordinating closely with U.S.-led security efforts. While engaged in discussions to keep the Strait open for energy exports, Qatar has historically tried to maintain a diplomatic balance, seeking to avoid total bridge-burning with Iran.
As O'Leary notes, the "optimal outcome" involves these states coming together with America to guarantee regional security. However, achieving this would require the Iranian regime to be dismantled or entirely defeated. A full-scale ground invasion of Iran would be an undertaking of years, costing trillions and potentially further destabilizing global politics before any "stability" is achieved.
The Bottom Line
Currently, oil prices (CLK26) have surged back above $100, and the war shows no immediate signs of ending. O’Leary’s solution essentially requires the U.S. and its allies to seize complete control over the Strait. The economic benefits of lower gas prices and more predictable markets are clear, but that's all way easier said than done. The cost would be sizeable, and this solution is not guaranteed by any means.
For now, the world watches the Strait. If O’Leary is right, a unified Gulf coalition could be the "game-changer" that finally breaks the cycle of energy blackmail. But until that coalition moves from discussion to definitive action, the supply remains tight, and the reality of $4.00 gas prices is likely to continue.
On the date of publication, Oscar Cierpial did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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