Business sentiment remains sanguine despite uncertainty

The U.S. economy showed notable resilience in the second quarter in the face of significant uncertainty, according to the national Citizens Business Conditions Index™ (CBCI), released today. The second quarter index reading of 50.2 indicates that business conditions remained modestly positive during the period.

Despite the challenges of trade and geopolitical upheaval, corporate revenue trends were generally healthy in the second quarter. Citizens’ proprietary data showed continued revenue growth across most sectors, with a notable rebound in utilities after a soft start to the year.

“The second quarter was characterized by volatility as businesses navigated a dynamic macroeconomic and geopolitical environment,” said Eric Merlis, managing director and co-head of global markets at Citizens. “However, by and large, companies have adjusted to the new normal and client sentiment is feeling much stronger for the back half of the year.”

After a pull forward of activity in anticipation of tariffs during the first quarter, economic conditions did soften in some geographies with international borders, such as the Northeast. However, macroeconomic factors remained steady at a national level.

• New business applications were neutral to the index.
• National employment data, as measured by initial jobless claims, remained healthy but was also neutral to the index.
• The ISM Services Index remained slightly expansionary, as consumers continue to show their resilience.
• The ISM Manufacturing Index contracted, reflecting trade policy uncertainty.

Overall, the second quarter CBCI reveals remarkable stability in the business environment.

“While there have been some tariff impacts on the margins, the economy weathered the volatility of the second quarter incredibly well,” Merlis added. “Companies appear poised for growth in the third quarter and beyond.”

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About Citizens Financial Group, Inc.

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. is one of the nation’s oldest and largest financial institutions, with $218.3 billion in assets as of June 30, 2025. Headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island, Citizens offers a broad range of retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals, small businesses, middle-market companies, large corporations and institutions. Citizens helps its customers reach their potential by listening to them and by understanding their needs in order to offer tailored advice, ideas and solutions. In Consumer Banking, Citizens provides an integrated experience that includes mobile and online banking, a full-service customer contact center and the convenience of approximately 3,000 ATMs and approximately 1,000 branches in 14 states and the District of Columbia. Consumer Banking products and services include a full range of banking, lending, savings, wealth management and small business offerings. In Commercial Banking, Citizens offers a broad complement of financial products and solutions, including lending and leasing, deposit and treasury management services, foreign exchange, interest rate and commodity risk management solutions, as well as loan syndication, corporate finance, merger and acquisition, and debt and equity capital markets capabilities. More information is available at www.citizensbank.com or visit us on X, LinkedIn or Facebook.

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