With just over two years until the 2024 presidential election, the latest Fox News poll finds that if they were going to the ballot box today, voters would back someone else rather than re-elect President Joe Biden. And although they are skeptical the president has key traits needed to govern, Biden’s approval rating has rebounded as voters feel he’s more bipartisan than Republicans.
The survey of registered voters, released Sunday, finds over half (54%) would vote for someone else in 2024, while a third (33%) would re-elect Biden. In January, 60% chose someone else vs. 36% for Biden. The lowest "re-elect" number for former President Trump was 35% in January 2018, while former President Obama received a low of 39% in September 2010.
Part of Biden’s problem is that more than a quarter of his own partisans aren’t yet on board for a second term. He garners support from 7 in 10 Democrats, relatively unchanged from the beginning of the year, while 9 in 10 Republicans are firm in their decision to pick someone else
"This is a rough measure that shows some Democrats hope for a better candidate and Republicans are firmly decided against Biden," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. "But it clearly understates Biden’s likely support in an election environment against an actual Republican candidate because we know most Democrats will consolidate behind their nominee, whoever that is."
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There is a lack of enthusiasm among those without a party preference – just 13% of independents would re-elect Biden, while 54% would go for someone else. A quarter say it’s too soon (23%) or are unsure (2%).
Overall, 10 % feel it’s too soon or are unsure about their 2024 vote.
Meanwhile, Biden’s lost ground on characteristics classically considered vital to a successful presidency. About one-third think Biden is a strong leader (35%), down 14 points from his high mark in October 2020 (49%). Six in 10 believe he’s not a strong leader (62%).
"Political science research indicates that when a president is perceived as being a ‘strong leader’ they are likely to have positive ratings overall," says Shaw. "In Biden’s case, it’s hard to overcome the fact that almost two-thirds think he’s weak."
Results are similar among other traits: small majorities say he’s not honest and trustworthy (44% yes vs. 52% no), doesn’t care about them (46-51%), and lacks the mental soundness to serve effectively as president (40-56%).
Among Democrats, at least 7 in 10 saying he's a strong leader (71%), mentally sound (78%), honest (82%), and cares about them (86%).
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Biden gets more credit for bipartisanship than GOP lawmakers, with 43% saying he’s tried to collaborate with Republicans compared to 34% thinking Republicans have made an effort. That gap comes from 79% of Democrats saying Biden has tried to be bipartisan, while just 53% of Republicans say the same of GOP leaders.
Approval of Biden went up this month, although he remains underwater: 46% approve of the job he’s doing vs. 53% who disapprove. Last month, he was at 43-56%. This is the highest his rating has been since January (47-52%).
The president’s issue ratings remain negative: Russia-Ukraine (44% approve vs. 52% disapprove), energy policy (43-53%), climate change (43-52%), foreign policy (41-54%), crime (37-58%), border security (36-60%), the economy (35-62%), and inflation (29-67%).
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Conducted October 9-12, 2022, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,206 registered voters nationwide who were randomly selected from a national voter file and spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The total sample has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
