In a head-to-head matchup, Vice President Kamala Harris tops former President Donald Trump by three percentage points in a Fox News survey of Georgia voters.
Harris receives 51% support to Trump’s 48% among both registered and likely voters. While her advantage may be narrow (inside the margin of error), it is steady. Last month, she was up 50-48% among registered voters.
Roughly 1 in 10 of each candidate’s supporters say they may change their mind.
More Georgians see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class and protect democracy by a 7-point margin on each. She is also seen as the candidate more likely to fight "for people like you" by 6 points. Harris’ largest lead is on handling the issue of abortion, where she is favored by 18 points.
Trump’s largest lead is on handling immigration (+15 points).
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The two candidates are rated more closely on bringing needed change (Harris by 4 points), making the country safe (Trump +3), and handling the economy (Trump +4). His advantage on the economy today is half what it was last month.
Large majorities of Black voters trust Harris over Trump on each issue and trait, with as many as 85% saying she will "fight for people like you."
Among independents, 6 in 10 see Harris as helping the middle class, while nearly as many say Trump is better able to handle the economy.
"Georgia is looking like a true battleground with a slight lean toward Harris," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News polls with Republican Daron Shaw. "More voters see her fighting for them and standing up for the middle class, and she has almost neutralized Trump’s advantage on the economy."
Party loyalty is also a factor. By a 4-percentage point margin, more Democrats back Harris than Republicans back Trump. One in five non-MAGA Republicans supports Harris.
Independents favor Harris over Trump by 13 points.
Trump won Georgia by 5 percentage points in 2016, but Biden took the state in 2020 by less than half a point.
By a wide 30-point margin, Georgia voters like the job Gov. Brian Kemp is doing, 64% approve vs. 34% disapprove (August 2024).
"The pathway for Trump is pretty obvious," says Shaw. "He has to make nice with Governor Kemp and non-MAGA Republicans -- and if he does that, he probably has the edge."
Harris gets her best numbers from Black voters, urban voters, those under age 30, and women.
Majorities of Whites without a college degree, rural voters, men, and voters ages 65 and over support Trump.
New voters split 50-50% (those who haven’t voted in the four most recent general elections).
Married voters go for Trump by 15 points, while those who are unmarried favor Harris by 21.
Most voters who say they will cast their ballot early prefer Harris, while Trump is favored among those planning to vote on Election Day.
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Meanwhile, Harris is generally more popular than Trump. By a 3-point margin the vice president receives net positive ratings, as 51% have a favorable view of her and 48% unfavorable. Trump’s ratings are net negative by 6 points (47% vs. 53%).
The same goes for the vice-presidential candidates. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is in positive territory by 1 point (43-42%), while Ohio Sen. JD Vance is underwater by 3 (43-46%).
All do better than President Biden, whose personal favorability ratings are negative by 16 points (42-58%).
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Conducted September 20-24, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,006 Georgia registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (132) and cellphones (646) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (228). Results based on the full registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points and for the subsample of 707 likely voters it is ±3.5 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance, and marital status.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
