ManpowerGroup has gotten torched over the last six months - since February 2025, its stock price has dropped 32.7% to $38.40 per share. This may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is there a buying opportunity in ManpowerGroup, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.

Why Do We Think ManpowerGroup Will Underperform?

Even though the stock has become cheaper, we don't have much confidence in ManpowerGroup. Here are three reasons why you should be careful with MAN and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Core Business Falling Behind as Demand Declines

In addition to reported revenue, organic revenue is a useful data point for analyzing Professional Staffing & HR Solutions companies. This metric gives visibility into ManpowerGroup’s core business because it excludes one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures along with foreign currency fluctuations - non-fundamental factors that can manipulate the income statement.

Over the last two years, ManpowerGroup’s organic revenue averaged 3.2% year-on-year declines. This performance was underwhelming and implies it may need to improve its products, pricing, or go-to-market strategy. It also suggests ManpowerGroup might have to lean into acquisitions to grow, which isn’t ideal because M&A can be expensive and risky (integrations often disrupt focus).

2. EPS Trending Down

Analyzing the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company's incremental sales were profitable – for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.

Sadly for ManpowerGroup, its EPS declined by 16% annually over the last five years, more than its revenue. This tells us the company struggled because its fixed cost base made it difficult to adjust to shrinking demand.

3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines

A company’s ROIC, or return on invested capital, shows how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Unfortunately, ManpowerGroup’s ROIC has decreased significantly over the last few years. Paired with its already low returns, these declines suggest its profitable growth opportunities are few and far between.

Final Judgment

ManpowerGroup falls short of our quality standards. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 11.1× forward P/E (or $38.40 per share). This multiple tells us a lot of good news is priced in - we think there are better opportunities elsewhere. We’d suggest looking at our favorite semiconductor picks and shovels play.

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