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What to expect from Grocery Outlet’s (GO) Q3 earnings

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Discount grocery store chain Grocery Outlet (NASDAQ: GO) will be reporting results this Tuesday after the bell. Here’s what to expect.

Grocery Outlet beat analysts’ revenue expectations last quarter, reporting revenues of $1.19 billion, up 1.1% year on year. It was a very strong quarter for the company, with a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

Is Grocery Outlet a buy or sell going into earnings? Read our full analysis here, it’s free for active Edge members.

This quarter, the market is expecting Grocery Outlet’s revenue to be flat year on year, slowing from the 5.4% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year.

Grocery Outlet total revenue

Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they anticipate the business will stay the course heading into earnings. Grocery Outlet has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates multiple times over the last two years.

Looking at Grocery Outlet’s peers in the non-discretionary retail segment, some have already reported their Q3 results, giving us a hint as to what we can expect. Albertsons posted flat year-on-year revenue, meeting analysts’ expectations, and Sprouts reported revenues up 4.7%, falling short of estimates by 1.3%. Albertsons traded up 4.3% following the results while Sprouts was down 22.6%.

Read our full analysis of Albertsons’s results here and Sprouts’s results here.

There has been positive sentiment among investors in the non-discretionary retail segment, with share prices up 7.3% on average over the last month. Grocery Outlet is up 7.4% during the same time and is heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $11.08 (compared to the current share price of $12.81).

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