Earnings results often indicate what direction a company will take in the months ahead. With Q3 behind us, let’s have a look at Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR) and its peers.

Thrifts & Mortgage Finance institutions operate by accepting deposits and extending loans primarily for residential mortgages, earning revenue through interest rate spreads (difference between lending rates and borrowing costs) and origination fees. The industry benefits from demographic tailwinds as millennials enter prime homebuying age, technological advancements streamlining the loan approval process, and potential interest rate stabilization improving affordability. However, significant headwinds include net interest margin compression during rate volatility, increased competition from fintech disruptors offering digital-first experiences, mounting regulatory compliance costs, and potential housing market corrections that could impact loan portfolios and default rates.

The 14 thrifts & mortgage finance stocks we track reported a satisfactory Q3. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 5.5% while next quarter’s revenue guidance was 0.5% below.

While some thrifts & mortgage finance stocks have fared somewhat better than others, they have collectively declined. On average, share prices are down 1.4% since the latest earnings results.

Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR)

With roots dating back to 2003 and a focus on the stability of multifamily housing, Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR) is a specialized lender that provides financing solutions for multifamily and commercial real estate while also originating and servicing government-backed mortgage loans.

Arbor Realty Trust reported revenues of $112.4 million, down 28.2% year on year. This print fell short of analysts’ expectations by 25.8%. Overall, it was a mixed quarter for the company with a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates but a significant miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Arbor Realty Trust delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates and slowest revenue growth of the whole group. Unsurprisingly, the stock is down 20.9% since reporting and currently trades at $9.15.

Read our full report on Arbor Realty Trust here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Best Q3: Ellington Financial (NYSE: EFC)

Operating under the guidance of Ellington Management Group, a respected name in structured credit markets, Ellington Financial (NYSE: EFC) acquires and manages a diverse portfolio of mortgage-related, consumer-related, and other financial assets to generate returns for investors.

Ellington Financial reported revenues of $82.76 million, up 23.6% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 4.9%. The business had an exceptional quarter with a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

However, the results were likely priced into the stock as it’s traded sideways since reporting. Shares currently sit at $13.64.

Is now the time to buy Ellington Financial? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Weakest Q3: WaFd Bank (NASDAQ: WAFD)

Founded in 1917 and rebranded from Washington Federal in 2023, WaFd (NASDAQ: WAFD) is a bank holding company that provides lending, deposit services, and insurance through its Washington Federal Bank subsidiary across eight western states.

WaFd Bank reported revenues of $187.2 million, flat year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 2%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ net interest income estimates and a significant miss of analysts’ EPS estimates.

Interestingly, the stock is up 10.2% since the results and currently trades at $30.69.

Read our full analysis of WaFd Bank’s results here.

Columbia Financial (NASDAQ: CLBK)

Founded during the Roaring Twenties in 1926 and headquartered in Fair Lawn, New Jersey, Columbia Financial (NASDAQ: CLBK) operates federally chartered savings banks in New Jersey that offer traditional banking services including loans, deposits, and insurance products.

Columbia Financial reported revenues of $64.91 million, up 29.4% year on year. This result surpassed analysts’ expectations by 15.5%. Overall, it was a very strong quarter as it also put up an impressive beat of analysts’ revenue estimates and a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates.

The stock is up 6% since reporting and currently trades at $15.03.

Read our full, actionable report on Columbia Financial here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Walker & Dunlop (NYSE: WD)

Originating as a small mortgage banking firm during the Great Depression in 1937, Walker & Dunlop (NYSE: WD) provides commercial real estate financing, property sales, appraisal, and investment management services with a focus on multifamily properties.

Walker & Dunlop reported revenues of $337.7 million, up 15.5% year on year. This print topped analysts’ expectations by 3.5%. Zooming out, it was a slower quarter as it logged a significant miss of analysts’ net interest income estimates and a narrow beat of analysts’ EPS estimates.

The stock is down 17.9% since reporting and currently trades at $65.62.

Read our full, actionable report on Walker & Dunlop here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Market Update

The Fed’s interest rate hikes throughout 2022 and 2023 have successfully cooled post-pandemic inflation, bringing it closer to the 2% target. Inflationary pressures have eased without tipping the economy into a recession, suggesting a soft landing. This stability, paired with recent rate cuts (0.5% in September 2024 and 0.25% in November 2024), fueled a strong year for the stock market in 2024. The markets surged further after Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November, with major indices reaching record highs in the days following the election. Still, questions remain about the direction of economic policy, as potential tariffs and corporate tax changes add uncertainty for 2025.

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