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3 Reasons to Avoid AIT and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

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Since May 2021, the S&P 500 has delivered a total return of 75.6%. But one standout stock has more than doubled the market - over the past five years, Applied Industrial has surged 196% to $310.45 per share. Its momentum hasn’t stopped as it’s also gained 19.5% in the last six months thanks to its solid quarterly results, beating the S&P by 11.8%.

Is there a buying opportunity in Applied Industrial, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Check out our in-depth research report to see what our analysts have to say, it’s free.

Why Is Applied Industrial Not Exciting?

We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than AIT and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Core Business Falling Behind as Demand Plateaus

In addition to reported revenue, organic revenue is a useful data point for analyzing Engineered Components and Systems companies. This metric gives visibility into Applied Industrial’s core business because it excludes one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures along with foreign currency fluctuations - non-fundamental factors that can manipulate the income statement.

Over the last two years, Applied Industrial failed to grow its organic revenue. This performance was underwhelming and implies it may need to improve its products, pricing, or go-to-market strategy. It also suggests Applied Industrial might have to lean into acquisitions to accelerate growth, which isn’t ideal because M&A can be expensive and risky (integrations often disrupt focus). Applied Industrial Organic Revenue Growth

2. Projected Revenue Growth Is Slim

Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.

Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Applied Industrial’s revenue to rise by 5.8%. While this projection suggests its newer products and services will catalyze better top-line performance, it is still below average for the sector.

3. Recent EPS Growth Below Our Standards

Although long-term earnings trends give us the big picture, we like to analyze EPS over a shorter period to see if we are missing a change in the business.

Applied Industrial’s unimpressive 5.4% annual EPS growth over the last two years aligns with its revenue trend. This tells us it maintained its per-share profitability as it expanded.

Applied Industrial Trailing 12-Month EPS (GAAP)

Final Judgment

Applied Industrial isn’t a terrible business, but it doesn’t pass our bar. With its shares topping the market in recent months, the stock trades at 27.4× forward P/E (or $310.45 per share). Investors with a higher risk tolerance might like the company, but we don’t really see a big opportunity at the moment. We're pretty confident there are superior stocks to buy right now. Let us point you toward an all-weather company that owns household favorite Taco Bell.

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